Where is my equipment sales demand headed?
Industry sales & the makers, projected from crop-price leads · sources: FRED + in-house financials
Sales bottomed near -25.0% in early 2025 and have recovered to about -5.6%. Your leading crop signals are turning up — soybeans (~9-month lead) up 18.1% and wheat (~6-month lead) up 38.4% — so the projected sales line firms toward flat-to-+17% by early 2027. Corn (~12-month) is roughly flat, so the signals aren't unanimous. A modest, crop-led recovery.
Industry — sales & the crop-price lead
6-month view. Wheat leads by about 6 months, so the projection reaches ~early 2027 — the shorter but most accurate read: adding wheat cut out-of-sample forecast error by 6% vs soybeans + corn alone.
A crop lead is only added if it improves the out-of-sample forecast, not just the fit to history. Wheat cleared that bar and stayed in. Cotton was screened and left out, because it fit the past but didn't improve the forecast.
What this means for your dealership
The cycle is turning up. The two-year slump has largely run its course, and the projected sales line — driven by crop prices at their historical leads — points to demand firming from about -5.6% toward flat-to-+17% by early 2027. Plan for a recovery, not a continued decline.
Your crop signals disagree — read the band. Soybeans and wheat have turned positive, but corn is choppy and roughly flat, so this is moderate-confidence, with a wide range (-1% to +34% by early 2027). Lean in on soy- and wheat-belt lines, keep stocking disciplined until corn confirms.
The makers — Deere · AGCO · Case IH (CNH)
All three makers corroborate the industry cycle from their own revenue — a deep 2024–25 downturn (bottoming −28% to −34%) and a recovery turning positive. Projected forward from the same soybean lead, each firms into early 2027: Deere ≈ +9%, AGCO ≈ +6%, CNH ≈ +5% — modest, soy-led, on wide bands.
Deere = ag-equipment segment (excludes Construction & Financial Services, ~37% of total). AGCO ≈ pure ag. CNH = total— includes ~15% construction + ~15% financial services (clean ag history isn't available pre-2024). Projections regress each maker's quarterly revenue on the soybean lead over 13–25 quarters, so bands are wide (≈ ±15–30 pts) — directional, like the industry line.
Why the makers use a simpler signal than the industry. We forecast each maker from the soybean price signal — the sturdiest relationship their short quarterly history supports. We tested two richer methods (adding wheat; tying the makers to the industry outlook) and neither held up.